27 August 2004

If anti-Bush protests turn violent at the Republican National Convention in New York next week, it will surely doom Sen. John Kerry to defeat

At least according to a prevailing consensus of media pundits, including KFNX Charles Goyette, where it is reasoned that pandemonium in New York next week will lead to a Bush victory in November. Cited as historical reference is the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago where such battles between protestors and police shocked the nation and resulted in a Nixon triumph. But a closer look reveals a media myth:
As often is the case in such distant matters, a little research shows that this is plain bunk. Humphrey actually gained in the polls immediately following the convention.

According to Gallup Poll data, in a national survey taken Aug. 7-12, 1968, before the Chicago convention, Republican nominee Richard M. Nixon easily led Humphrey (who was expected to get his party's nod later that month in Chicago) by 38.5% to 26%, with the third-party candidate, Gov. George Wallace, grabbing 16.7%.

So what did the Gallup survey taken on Aug. 30 of that year, immediately after the Chicago convention, with the protestor/police riots still fresh in the public's mind, show? Humphrey actually gained support, with Nixon steady at 38.2%, Humphrey up to 28.7% and Wallace at 19.5%.

Humphrey actually received a 3% boost from the convention.

Remember, though, past performance is not a guarantee for future results.


I agree with you Naum. I find that "historic" patterns used to predict any elecion is basically crazy.
It's going down to the wire again this year. With or without the violence.
Interesting link, Naum. Some of this seems a little farfetched. I guess we'll find out how much was true.

A little Truth goes here....
> --------
> It would be difficult to fully communicate my
> disappointment in a simple email. On the other hand,
> slipping out into the hall and drowning myself in the mop
> bucket would mean that someone else would have to feed my
> dog.
> Kerry has not yet conceded defeat, but I have. Even if
> someone finds that crate full of votes for Kerry bobbing
> down the Cuyahoga River, the American people have spoken,
> and they have sent the world a message: "We're barely
> bright enough to chew our own food."
> Incompetence, incoherence, inarticulateness, pettiness and
> random savagery apparently do not deter the majority of
> Americans. The thing that really, REALLY matters to
> Americans? Homos. And foreigners. Both must be stopped at
> any cost.
> Americans voted overwhelmingly in favor of bigotry,
> amending state constitutions around the country to prevent
> same-sex couples from having any rights beyond the right to
> live on the margins of society. We clearly have far more to
> fear from The International Homosexual Conspiracy(tm) than
> we do from North Korea and the collapse of the American
> health care system.
> Apparently, we are truly a nation of slackjawed yokels,
> awed only by grotesque displays of wealth and violence,
> reverent only of the bossman and beholden not even to our
> children, since we seem content to mortgage their future in
> favor of a $300 tax refund that we have traded for decent
> jobs, healthcare, and a just society.
> We make pious noises about worshipping a Just and Merciful
> God, while doling out destruction and horror upon the
> innocent, pausing only to pat ourselves on the back for
> waging a "just" war to rid the world of tyrants that
> audaciously aspire to exist after they lose their utility
> to us in endless low-level conflicts to control the world's
> oil supply.
> We seem to have become cheap, venal, vulgar and petty while
> we apparently don't have the ability to reason our way out
> of the dilemma of taking care of the sick, watching out for
> the elderly, and teaching our children not to be credulous,
> callow dupes.
> To my friends from the UK, France and anyone to whom they
> choose to forward this, I feel that I owe you an apology.
> It is as if I have brought an orangutan to high tea. While
> he flings shit at you and tries to snatch pastries from
> your plate, I am left wondering how I might make it up to
> you.
> The world's richest and most powerful nation seems to have
> lost its moral compass. We have lost interest in leading by
> example in favor of taking by force. I would like to say
> that I believe that one day in the future America might
> regain its senses. Unfortunately, I am not terribly
> optimistic. The best I can offer you is to remind you that
> Nixon also won a second term.
Now we know why.
According to Newsweek magazine, "Kerry's diary included mention of a meeting with some North Vietnamese terrorists in Paris."

Though Kerry's sit-down with North Vietnamese representatives had been reported late in the campaign, his description of them as "terrorists" would have set off smoke alarms.

The prospect that the top Democrat was willing to negotiate with "terrorists" 35 years ago would undoubtedly have cemented the Bush campaign's central message on Kerry: Anyone who would negotiate with terrorists can't be trusted with U.S. national security in a post-9/11 world.

John Edwards was "flabbergasted" by the news, Newsweek said. He recognized immediately how important it was to keep Kerry's terrorist confab secret.

"Let me get this straight," he told campaign staffers who delivered the shocker. "He met with terrorists? Oh, that's good."








It is the soldier, not the reporter,
Who has given us freedom of the press.
It is the soldier, not the poet,
Who has given us freedom of speech.
It is the soldier, not the campus organizer,
Who has given us the freedom to demonstrate.
It is the soldier,
Who salutes the flag,
Who serves beneath the flag,
And whose coffin is draped by the flag,
Who allows the protestor to burn the flag.
Father Denis Edward O'Brien USMC
Mondo, I was kidding about being b&, but please be considerate of the hosts and others:

1. Please refrain from posting the same post in multiple articles - again, link to the article if you want to refer someone there.

2. Again, copying articles, most of which are copyrighted and could get me into legal trouble is a no-no. You can lift a sentence or two, or a couple of paragraphs and that's OK, but no entire articles. You can cut & paste the link in and folks can click on the link to read the entire article.

Thanks for your support.
I understand man..... hope no bad feelings...my bad
Mondo, You need to take your Ritalin. And Valium.
That is the problem. You sound like you really need drugs. Lots of them. Now pipe down. What are you, 13 years old?
so you would give drugs to a 13 year old??
oh thats right thats what you LIBS call child care. Rather than being there for your kids you pump them full of drugs and diagnose them with ADD just because you fail to give them the attention they truly NEED.
Liberals lah out at their "savior" KERRY

Bad Messenger
by Martin Peretz

Liberals lash out at their "savior" KERRY

Bad Messenger
by Martin Peretz

Mooreman and Father Marsh: is this what it always come down to? "What, are you 13 years old?"

Mondo's not the one screaming conspiracy on an election handily won by Bush.

Mondo's not posting hoax bullshit that denigrates the intelligence of conservative voters. (see the Red State IQ hoax).

Mondo doesn't promote hate speech and bigotry that has become a mainstay of liberal blogs and radio.

Mondo's not posting maps from 1860 and "determining" in a very juvenile manner that Republicans are scum.

You won't hear Mondo referring to any American leader as "Hitler", or "Nazi brownshirt", or "Worse than Saddam, or Osama".

In other words, Mondo is mature and interested in meaningful dialogue. Now, the question is, what about you people? Shall we get in the gutter and duke it out, or shall we be civil?
*LOL* Thank you very much Happy Republican. One thing i cant stand is the people in the world who want to pint out the thorn in my eye when they hava a whold bush (no pun intended) protuding from theirs.

Some people today need to point their consperoucy theories @ Saddam and France and others who are trying to do us harm rather than our own country... they dont see that they weaken our own stand when they make up lies about our Government to advance their own selfish needs. Why is it so easy to believe AMERICA is a big bad VILLAIN and so hard to see that SADDAM and YASER and OSAMA are the ones that are truly evil...and im not just saying that because of their religeoun, I am saying that because they thrive on the opression of others and their strength is only gained by bsomeone elses loss.
Kerry was a bad EGG and even now the dems are saying this....where as two weeks ago he was going to make the cripple walk. You turn on you GODS quickley when they fail to meet your expectations. Why didnt you see he was weak before you nominated him???? Because you believed all the lies that YOUR PEOPLE made up about him. He was a PAPER TIGER.
isnt it funny how iran fell in line as soon as they learned BUSH won???


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